Gold’s slide from $5,602 to $4,190 — and its rebound above $4,600 — isn’t just volatility. It’s the imprint of the US–Iran war pressed straight onto the chart. In sixty days, the market moved through three clean phases: a fear‑driven spike, a supply‑shock collapse, and a double‑bottom reset. Each phase had a cause. Each one still echoes in today’s price.
key levels
Pre-war base
$4,900
Feb 28 · war day open
All-time high
$5,602
Mar 2 · safe-haven peak
Double-bottom low
~$4,190
Mar 19–22 · panic trough
Neckline
~$4,730
Breakout confirms recovery
Peak-to-trough
−25.2%
17 trading days
Today
$4,613
RSI 43–49 · neutral
four phases
① Feb 28 – Mar 2
Safe-haven spike
Operation Epic Fury launched at 1:15am EST. ~900 targets struck in 12 hours; Khamenei killed. Gold surged from $4,900 to ATH $5,602 in two sessions. RSI ~80 — deep overbought.
② Mar 3 – Mar 22
Logistics panic collapse
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Ship transits: 130/day → 6/day (−95%). Oil surged toward $100/bbl → inflation spiked → Fed held rates → gold's opportunity cost rose. Price collapsed 25% in 17 days to ~$4,190.
③ Mar 23 – Apr 8
Double bottom & recovery
RSI ~20 — extreme oversold. Two tests of ~$4,190 confirmed selling exhaustion. Breakout above neckline ~$4,730 re-established the uptrend. Gold recovered to ~$4,870. Central bank buying provided the structural floor.
④ Apr 9 – Today
Consolidation
US blockade of Iranian ports (Apr 11) renewed inflation concern. Gold pulled back to $4,613. RSI 43–49 — neutral. The chart is coiling; the next move hinges on peace talks and the May 10 CPI print.
the paradox — why conflict caused gold to fall
The Hormuz transmission mechanism
Phase 1 — expected: War begins → safe-haven demand → gold to ATH $5,602. The textbook response lasted 48 hours.
Phase 2 — the twist: Hormuz closes → oil +55% → inflation spikes → Fed holds rates → real yields stay elevated → opportunity cost of non-yielding gold rises → sell-off.
Phase 3 — reassertion: Once the closure proved structural, gold shifted from short-term trade to long-term insurance. Central banks and sovereign funds re-entered. RSI ~20 signalled selling exhaustion.
The double bottom: Two tests of ~$4,190 with RSI at extreme oversold confirmed exhaustion. The neckline at ~$4,730 was the pivotal level — a confirmed close above it re-established the medium-term uptrend.
verified timeline
Feb 28 · 1:15am EST
Operation Epic Fury begins
~900 targets struck. Khamenei killed. Iran launches retaliatory missiles and drones. Gold gaps up at open.
Mar 2
Gold ATH — $5,602
Full safe-haven bid priced in. RSI ~80. Highest gold has ever traded in nominal terms. The Hormuz mechanism is already building beneath the surface.
Mar 3–6
Shipping flees Hormuz
MSC and Maersk halt Hormuz bookings. War-risk insurance withdrawn. Tanker traffic drops 70% in three days.
Mar 9
Oil breaks $100/barrel
First time since 2022. Inflation transmission locks in. Fed rate-cut expectations collapse. Gold falls below $5,000.
Mar 13–16
IEA warning · Hormuz at zero
IEA: largest supply disruption since 1970s. Transits: 130/day → 6/day. ~2,000 ships stranded in the Gulf. Gold below $4,600.
Mar 19–22
Double bottom — RSI ~20
Two tests of ~$4,190 four days apart. RSI at extreme oversold. Institutional and central bank buyers re-enter quietly.
Late Mar – Apr 8
Neckline breakout · recovery to $4,870
Confirmed close above ~$4,730. 16% rally from trough. Safe-haven thesis reasserts as Hormuz closure proves structural.
Apr 11 – May 2
US blockade · second leg down · $4,613
Naval blockade of Iranian ports renews inflation concern. Second corrective leg. RSI returns to neutral 43–49.
reading the RSI circles
Red circle — Mar 2–4 · RSI ~80: Buyers exhausted. RSI above 70 signals an impending reversal regardless of headlines. The 25% collapse over the following 17 days validated the signal.
First green circle — Mar 19–22 · RSI ~20: Sellers exhausted. Coinciding with the double-bottom pattern, this was the cleanest entry signal of the 60-day period. A 16% rally followed within two weeks.
Second green circle — late Apr · RSI ~27–36: Approaching oversold again after the post-Apr 8 corrective leg. A lower-conviction signal than March — macro headwinds persist — but notable given the double-bottom support zone beneath.
what to watch next
Islamabad talksCeasefire scope — does it include Lebanon & Hormuz? The pivotal binary catalyst.
Hormuz reopeningPartial reopening deflates the inflation premium → gold dips 5–8% initially, then structural bids return.
US CPI · May 10Forecast 3.7% YoY. A beat reinforces the rate-hold headwind; a miss is bullish for gold.
Central bank buying850t forecast for 2026 — the structural floor independent of war or peace.
Support level~$4,550–4,600 · former neckline zone. A daily close below $4,550 turns short-term bearish.
verdict
The gold chart from February to today is one of the most instructive macro case studies of the decade — not because of what gold did, but because of why. The initial surge to $5,602 was the expected safe-haven response. The collapse to $4,190 was not weakness — it was the logical result of the Hormuz closure transmitting through oil prices into inflation and then into rate expectations. The double bottom and recovery were gold's structural thesis reasserting against that headwind, supported by central bank demand that does not pause for geopolitical news.
Current positioning: At $4,613, gold sits above the double-bottom support zone but below the April recovery peak. The RSI at 43–49 is neutral — not a strong entry signal. The cleaner entry would be on a confirmed Islamabad breakdown (Hormuz stays closed → gold retests $4,200–4,400 on safe-haven re-entry) or on a CPI undershoot (Fed can cut → rate headwind eases → gold rallies toward $5,000).
For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Event data: Britannica, Wikipedia, UNCTAD, IEA, JPMorgan Research. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
nwchun90 · 2026 · XAU/USD